Solution to My Project Estimation Problem

Project estimation is a constant concern for those of us who have to do it regularly at our jobs.  Regardless of how much care you take in gathering relevant information prior to creating the estimate they still never seem to be correct.  No number of meetings, requirements documents, models, diagrams, user stories, or other data seems to be enough to guarantee accuracy.  Requirements gathering and estimating processes become more sophisticated, yet no more accurate.

So, what is missing?  When every possible aspect related to project design and development has its own line on the spreadsheet and you’re still not getting an accurate estimate what else is there to add? 

I’ve decided to take another tack to try to solve this problem.  If the initial conditions of every aspect of a project can be described explicitly, yet the description moves further and further off the mark as it evolves over time, then perhaps the simple, Cartesian model we’re using is not correct.  That’s when it all finally started to make sense to me.

I think I now know what I need to do to fix my estimates.  From here on out, I’m going to add a relativistic factor to all of my project estimates.  This factor will account for any observed time dilation during the project.

According to Einstein’s special theory of relativity, clocks that are moving with respect to any inertial system are measured to be running slower.  Do you see how this can work against me?  The faster I code relative to a stationary observer, e. g., my boss, the slower it looks like I’m working.  I may still think I’ve got two hours left of work but to my boss the day is over and he needs it now. 

Moving forward I’m going to apply a Lorentz Transformation to my estimates to account for my working speed.  I’m going to install a key logger on my laptop so I can get some data on my typing.  Once I figure out how to convert key strokes per second to meters per second I’ll have the factor I need to produce accurate project estimates.

If this doesn’t work out I’ve already got another idea lined up.  I’m going to try a quantum description of project estimation.  I’ll just need to figure out what the conjugate variable of the estimate actually is.  Considering that the conjugate variable to time is energy in Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, I’ll have to reformulate my estimation equation in terms of time and energy.  The more accurately I describe my level of effort, the less accurate my time estimates will be.  For someone as inherently lazy as I am, my quantum time estimates should be as accurate as an atomic clock.

I should probably just create my estimates using statistical methods.  If I can say I’m ninety percent certain to have this done by Friday, I’ve already given myself an out.